I like the Wild Cats quite a bit here. Theyâre 4-0, and the story goes⦠Northwestern canât win in October. Since 2010 this team is 21-3 in August/September, but 6-14 in October. The difference is they beat Duke and Stanford this time around. Both Duke and Stanford beat arguably the best teams in their conference in USC & Georgia Tech since. I said this in my write up of week 1 when I backed the Wildcats over Stanford, this is Pat Fitzgeraldâs best defense. A defense ranked 3rd in scoring defense and 25th in yards per play. Minnesotaâs offense has struggled against defenses ranked 89th, 84th, and 63rd. They faced Kent State who is ranked 13th, but gave up 52 points to Illinois and 36 to Marshall. Minnesota scored just 10 against them. I predict that Minnesota wonât even get a TD in this game as Northwestern is holding opponents to 10% RZ TD%, and 18% on third downs. Minnesota really does not have that RB like they did a year ago in David Cobb and Minnesota has been forced to throw the ball 47% of the time.
Northwestern is running the ball 67% of the time which is smart for them with a young QB, but they will have to throw at certain points in this game if they are going to win. The good news is they are converting over 50% of their third downs and Minnesota is 99th in getting pressure on the QB and are playing without 75% of their secondary who have key injuries. The injuries are a huge concern for Minnesota and something I just do not think they can overcome. Northwestern has a chip on their shoulder they have lost these games in the past, even last year they had 120 more yards than Minnesota but lost. This is a home game and Pat Fitzgeraldâs defense should dominate and they should win and cover this spread as they also have the better overall special teams in my opinion.
Too much value here with Louisville you can argue that all 3 of Louisville losses were against opponents that are better than NC State or would at least be favored. You could also argue that Louisville could have won all of those games and we would be looking at a different situation here.
NC State steps up big time in competition against a hungry Louisville team that wants their first win in conference play. NC State has faced 86, 101, 103, and 144th ranked teams. Louisvilleâs defense is legit and I think they can run the ball against NC State ranking 3rd in run defense, but has faced 1 team inside the top 100 in rushing ypc and that would be Troy who is in the 90âs and averaged more than a yard better than their average. In the end you wonât find a stat for NC State you wonât like given their competition, but Louisville has a lot to like about them. I especially like their red zone defense to start the season which makes this spread extremely attractive.
